Current El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains at neutral condition (condition that is not in El Nino nor La Nina but in between). The Republic of Korea-Pacific Islands Climate Prediction (ROK-PI CliPS) models forecast normal to above normal rainfall forecast for most of the Pacific Islands for March to May 2017 period. However Kiribati and Nauru is forecast to receive lower than normal rainfall for the same period.
Air temperatures across much of the Pacific Islands are forecast to be warmer than normal; with the exception of Tuvalu expecting normal temperature conditions for this time of year. For the full details of the rainfall and temperature forecast; please click here.
Climate models outlooks are indicating increased warming of the Pacific ocean in the next few months, increasing the chance of EL Nino forming later in the year. Six of the eight models assessed show El Nino thresholds may be reached by July 2017.
Sources: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ and http://clikp.sprep.org/
