COSPPac Climate Bulletin for July 2021. The online version is available via:
https://www.pacificmet.net/products-and-services/climate-bulletin.
- The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues and likely to persist throughout spring (September-November).
- El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. Climate models indicate the central tropical Pacific is likely to cool over the coming months.
- A moderately strong pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation moved into the Western Pacific region in recent days. International climate models predict the MJO pulse will weaken and possibly become indiscernible in the next few days as it tracks further eastwards across the Western Pacific.
- The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was active and shifted north over western Pacific, while the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was generally suppressed.
- The sea surface temperature anomaly pattern in July shows SSTs were close to average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Coral bleaching status is 'no stress' or 'watch' for almost all countries with patches of warning for western FSM.
- A notable sea level anomaly of +250mm observed in the southern and eastern Solomon Islands and northern Fiji.
- For August to October 2021, the dynamical models agree on above normal rainfall for Palau, southern Marshall Islands, most of PNG, southern Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Niue and southern Cook Islands. The models also agree on below normal rainfall for FSM, CNMI, Guam, central and northern RMI, northern Solomon Islands, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tokelau, northern and central Cook Islands, and the northern half of French Polynesia.