El Nino conditions continue to rapidly weaken over March. While the Pacific ocean remains warmer than average, it has continued to cool steadily and most prevalently in the sub-surface. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an atmosphere indicator of ENSO, has also dropped to a weak El Nino threshold indicating the atmosphere is in sync with cooling in the Pacific ocean.
While indicators of El Nino show a weakening trend, the current event has and will continue to influence weather and climate of the islands over the next few months. Some Pacific island countries will continue to see lower than average rainfall and possible cyclone genesis west of the dateline as the warm pool moves westward.
The Pacific Islands of Federated State of Micronesia (FSM), Fiji, Niue, Southern Cook Islands and Wallis and Futuna have potential high water stress due to lower than average rainfall.
FSM: Below or well below normal rainfall has been experienced over five of the past six months and below normal rainfall is forecast over the next three months from April to June.
- Fiji, Niue, Southern Cook Islands and Vanuatu: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over four of the past six months, and below normal rainfall is forecast over the next three months.
- Samoa, Tonga and Wallis & Futuna: Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over three of the past six months, and below normal rainfall is forecast over the next three months.
- New Caledonia: There was below or well below normal rainfall experienced over four of the past six months, and near normal rainfall is forecast over the next three months.
Climate models indicate neutral conditions and La Niña are equally likely in the second half of 2016 -
Weather of Pacific Islands countries are still influenced by current El Nino, despite signs of weakening
For further information contact SPREP’s Climate Prediction Officer, Sunny Seuseu ([email protected]).