Abstract:
Ciguatera poisoning is the most reported seafood intoxication globally affecting 50,000-500,000 people annually. The central Pacific Ocean has arguably more ciguatera poisoning than any other place on earth, and ciguatera has over the decades become a critical public-health issue among Pacific island nations. Therefore, accurately predicting ciguatera outbreaks has become a priority, particularly in Rarotonga in the southern Cook Islands, which has reported the highest incidence of ciguatera poisoning globally, ranging from 204 to 1,058 per 10,000 population from 1994 to 2010. Here we tested two competing hypotheses that outline the primary causes of ciguatera outbreaks: (1) the new surface hypothesis and (2) the climate oscillation hypothesis.